3/15/2023 0 Comments Outguess info![]() They described a way to outguess the market” (233). He writes about how the stocks change and shows different stocks reflecting his advice.Īt one point, it is “argued that stock price movements are not random at all. Poundstone continues his benevolence in chapter twenty-two: How to Outguess the Stock Market. It is well balanced and both the kicker and the goalie can use it to their own advantage. For both sides of the party this is a good chapter. When the goalie has read this chapter they dive the way the kicker is most likely kick. The goalie can also read this chapter and the statistics that go along with it. There is no way to gyp the goalie in this situation because there is no interaction other than kicking and saving the ball. All this strategy is doing is increasing the kicker’s odds of scoring. These show that even when the goalies dive, they aren’t very likely to prevent the goal. There are 192 square feet for the ball to enter the goal.Īfter the ball is kicked, it takes a one-fifth of a second for it to travel into the goal: “That’s not enough time for the goalie to react” (87).Įven when the goalie does dive the correct way, “the kicker scores about 90% of the time” (88). ![]() With a penalty kick in soccer, the ball is placed twelve feet away from the goal and a kicker kicks the ball in any of these directions: high left, low left, high right, low right, or directly in the middle. Poundstone continues to help in chapter seven when he explains how to outguess soccer penalty kicks. In the New Jersey lottery, there is only a 1 in 175,223,510 chance of winning. Most people also probably do not spend in such a big way. For people who play the lottery as a game this would be no issue because the money is being spent anyway. Once he got an almost perfect strategy, he only won ten times in 210 days.įor those 210 days he spent $33 per day adding up to an astonishing $6,930. In the beginning of the chapter there is one story about an MIT statistician, who was one of the first to test theories about different numbers in the lottery. He asserts that this strategy is for people who play for fun all of the time. Poundstone states: “The strategy in this chapter is strictly for those who enjoy the lottery as entertainment and are going to play it anyway” (Poundstone 68). In chapter four, How to Outguess the Lottery, Poundstone wants to teach how to improve the odds of winning. Poundstone created this book to help people through situations rather than to help people gyp others. Rock Breaks Scissors goes over a lot of everyday situations and problems that have an easy way to be solved. At the end of every chapter, he writes a small overview restating what the chapter said. Poundstone goes in-depth about how to do everything he WithinĮvery chapter are different statistics, facts to back up claims, and different strategies to outguess. In each chapter, the book teaches a new skill. The second part of the book consists on how to outguess people by dismissing the “hot hand” theory that suppose people get “in the zone” when they really do not, telling people how to outguess bracket pools, office football pools, Oscar pools, big data, retail and home prices, the future, and the stock market. Most of these depend on the fact that real random numbers alternate far less often than the random numbers people chose do, and that human beings alternate a lot because we are most comfortable that way. how to outguess baseball and football, soccer penalty kicks, card games, passwords, crowd-sourced ratings, fake numbers, manipulated numbers, and Ponzi schemes.how to outguess the lottery (by not playing),.how to outguess multiple-choice tests (by picking none/all and a few other tips),.looking at the history of the Zenith broadcast experiments and containing advice on how to outsmart rock, paper, scissors (usually by guessing paper),.how to outsmart others based on the lack of randomness of human beings,.The first half consists of chapters containing material on : The book is a practical book on the intersection between statistics and psychology, divided roughly into two halves. ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS is a hands-on guide to turning life’s odds in your favor. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Yet ultimately we’re all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on “trends” and “winning streaks” that are illusions. Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. Will the next tennis serve go right or left?
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